How good are the SAG Awards at predicting the four acting winners at the Oscars?

Odds are that three of the four individual film winners at the Screen Actors Guild Awards on Sunday will be collecting Oscars on February 9. Over the past 25 years, 73 of the 100 Academy Awards winners in the four acting races had first collected SAG Awards. That success rate of 73% makes these precursors a bellwether to follow when making your Oscar predictions.

The results of the four races at both the SAG and Academy Awards breakdown as follows:

Best Actor: 20 of the SAG winners went on to win Oscars (plus Benicio del Toro who won in supporting at Oscars for “Traffic”). Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) and Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) won with the guild first. In 2017, Denzel Washington had ended a 12-year streak when he won at SAG for “Fences” but lost at the Oscars to Casey Affleck (“Manchester by the Sea”).

Best Actress: 18 of the SAG winners went on to victory at the Academy Awards.
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